No ke aha i pupule ai ʻo Nickel?

Puhi:ʻO ka kū'ē'ē ma waena o ka lako a me ka koi kekahi o nā kumu e ho'āla ai i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai nickel, akā ma hope o ke kūlana mākeke ikaika, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā manaʻo i loko o ka ʻoihana "nui" (alakaʻi ʻia e Glencore) a me ka "mea ʻole" (ka nui o Tsingshan Group). .

I kēia mau lā, me ka hakakā ma waena o Rūsia a me Ukraine e like me ka fuse, LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel futures i puka mai i kahi mākeke "epic".

ʻO ka kū'ē'ē ma waena o ka hoʻolako a me ka noi kekahi o nā kumu e alakaʻi ai i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai nickel, akā ma hope o ke kūlana mākeke ikaika, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā manaʻo i loko o ka ʻoihana ʻo nā pūʻali koa o nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua he "bipi" (alakaʻi ʻia e Glencore) a " nele" (ka mea nui e Tsingshan Group).

ʻO ka hoʻopau ʻana o ka manawa kūʻai nickel market LME

Ma Malaki 7, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai nickel LME mai US $ 30,000 / ton (uku wehe) i US $ 50,900 / ton (kūʻai hoʻoholo), kahi hoʻonui o ka lā hoʻokahi ma kahi o 70%.

Ma ka lā 8 o Malaki, ua hoʻomau ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai nickel LME, e piʻi ana i kahi kiʻekiʻe o US $101,000/ton, a laila hāʻule hou i US $80,000/ton. I nā lā kālepa ʻelua, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai nickel LME ma kahi o 248%.

Ma ka hola 4:00 pm i ka lā Malaki 8, ua hoʻoholo ka LME e hoʻokuʻu i ke kālepa ʻana o nā nickel futures a hoʻopanee i ka lawe ʻana i nā ʻaelike nickel spot a pau i hoʻonohonoho mua ʻia no ka lawe ʻana i ka lā 9 Malaki.

Ma ka lā 9 o Malaki, ua pane ʻo Tsingshan Group e hoʻololi i ka pā nickel home me kona pā nickel matte kiʻekiʻe, a ua hoʻokaʻawale i kahi kūpono no ka lawe ʻana ma nā ala like ʻole.

Ma Malaki 10, ua ʻōlelo ka LME e hoʻolālā e hoʻopau i nā kūlana lōʻihi a pōkole ma mua o ka wehe hou ʻana o ke kālepa nickel, akā ʻaʻole i pane maikaʻi nā ʻaoʻao ʻelua.

Mai Malaki 11 a 15, ua hoʻomau ʻia ka nickel LME.

Ma Malaki 15, ua hoʻolaha ka LME e hoʻomaka hou ke kālepa nickel i ke kālepa ma Malaki 16 i ka manawa kūloko. Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Tsingshan Group e hui pū ʻo ia me ka hui o ka hōʻaiʻē wai no ka nickel paʻa ʻana o Tsingshan a me nā pono hoʻoponopono.

I ka pōkole, ʻo Rūsia, ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai nui i nā kumuwaiwai nickel, ua ʻae ʻia ma muli o ke kaua Lūkini-Ukrainian, ka hopena i ka hiki ʻole o ka nickel Russian ke hāʻawi ʻia ma ka LME, i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ma luna o nā kumu he nui e like me ka hiki ʻole ke hoʻopiha i nā kumuwaiwai nickel i loko. Hiki i ka Hikina Hema o Asia i ka manawa kūpono, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻouna ʻia nā kauoha ʻole a Tsingshan Group no ka pale ʻana.

Aia nā hōʻailona like ʻole ʻaʻole i pau kēia hanana i kapa ʻia ʻo "short squeeze", a ke hoʻomau nei ke kamaʻilio a me ka pāʻani ma waena o nā mea pili lōʻihi a pōkole, LME, a me nā ʻoihana kālā.

Ke lawe nei i kēia manawa, e hoʻāʻo kēia ʻatikala e pane i kēia mau nīnau:

1. No ke aha i lilo ai ka metala nickel i mea nui o ka pāʻani kapikala?

2. Ua lawa anei ka lako o na kumu waiwai nikela?

3. ʻEhia ka nui o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai nickel i ka mākeke kaʻa ikehu hou?

ʻO Nickel no ka pila mana e lilo i pou ulu hou

Me ka hoʻomohala wikiwiki ʻana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou i ka honua, ua hoʻohālikelike ʻia ke ʻano o ka nickel kiʻekiʻe a me ka cobalt haʻahaʻa i nā pākahi lithium ternary, ua lilo ka nickel no nā pihi mana i pole ulu hou o ka hoʻohana nickel.

Manaʻo ka ʻoihana e hiki i ka makahiki 2025, e helu ʻia ka nui o ka mana honua ma kahi o 50%, ʻo ia ka nui o ka nickel ternary batteries e ʻoi aku ma mua o 83%, a e hāʻule ka hapa o 5-series ternary batteries i lalo o 17%. E piʻi aʻe ka noi no ka nickel mai 66,000 tons i 2020 a i 620,000 tons i 2025, me ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka hui ʻana o 48% i nā makahiki ʻehā e hiki mai ana.

Wahi a nā wanana, e piʻi aʻe ka noi honua no ka nickel no nā pihi mana mai lalo o 7% i kēia manawa i 26% i 2030.

Ma ke ʻano he alakaʻi honua i nā kaʻa ikehu hou, ua aneane pupule ka hana "nickel hoarding" a Tesla. Ua haʻi pinepine ʻo Tesla CEO Musk i nā manawa he nui o ka nickel raw material ka bottleneck nui loa o Tesla.

Ua ʻike ʻo Gaogong Lithium mai ka makahiki 2021, ua hui pū ʻo Tesla me ka hui mining French New Caledonia Proni Resources, Australian mining giant BHP Billiton, Brazil Vale, Canadian mining company Giga Metals, American miner Talon Metals, etc. he mau ʻaelike hoʻolako no ka manawa lōʻihi no nā nickel concentrates.

Eia kekahi, ke hoʻonui nei nā hui i loko o ke kaulahao ʻoihana uila e like me CATL, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Zhongwei, a me Tsingshan Group i ko lākou mana ma luna o nā kumuwaiwai nickel.

ʻO ia ke ʻano o ka hoʻomalu ʻana i nā kumuwaiwai nickel e like me ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ka tiketi i ke ala trillion-dollar.

ʻO Glencore ka mea kūʻai waiwai nui loa ma ka honua a ʻo kekahi o nā mea hana hou a me nā mea hana i nā mea nickel i loko o ka honua, me kahi kōpili o nā hana mining pili i ka nickel ma Kanada, Norewai, Australia a me New Coledonia. waiwai. Ma 2021, ʻo ka loaʻa kālā o ka waiwai nickel o ka hui he US $ 2.816 biliona, kahi hoʻonui makahiki ma kahi o 20%.

Wahi a ka ʻikepili LME, mai Ianuali 10, 2022, ua piʻi mālie ka hapa o nā hale kūʻai nickel futures i mālama ʻia e kahi mea kūʻai hoʻokahi mai 30% a i 39%, a ma ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Malaki, ua ʻoi aku ka nui o ka nui o nā loaʻa hale kūʻai ma mua o 90% .

Wahi a kēia nui, manaʻo ka mākeke ʻo nā bipi i kēia pāʻani pōkole lōʻihi loa ʻo Glencore.

Ma kekahiʻaoʻao, ua uhakiʻo Tsingshan Group i kaʻenehana hoʻomākaukau o "NPI (nickel pig iron from laterite nickel ore) - kiʻekiʻe nickel matte", ka mea i hoʻemi nui i ke kumukūʻai a manaʻoʻia e uhaki i ka hopena o ka nickel sulfate ma ka nickel maʻemaʻe. (me ka maʻiʻo nickel ʻaʻole i emi ma lalo o 99.8 %, ʻike ʻia hoʻi ʻo ka nickel mua).

Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe, ʻo 2022 ka makahiki e hoʻokomo ʻia ai ka papahana hou o Tsingshan Group ma Indonesia. Loaʻa iā Tsingshan nā manaʻolana ulu ikaika no kāna hana ponoʻī i lalo o ke kūkulu ʻana. I Malaki 2021, ua hoʻopaʻa inoa ʻo Tsingshan i kahi ʻaelike hoʻolako nickel matte kiʻekiʻe me Huayou Cobalt a me Zhongwei Co., Ltd. E hāʻawi ʻo Tsingshan i 60,000 tons nickel matte kiʻekiʻe iā Huayou Cobalt a me 40,000 tons iā Zhongwei Co., Ltd. i loko o hoʻokahi makahiki mai ʻOkakopa 2021 .

Pono e kuhikuhi ʻia he nickel maʻemaʻe nā koi o ka LME no nā huahana lawe nickel, a ʻo ka nickel matte kiʻekiʻe he huahana waena hiki ʻole ke hoʻohana ʻia no ka lawe ʻana. ʻO ka nickel maʻemaʻe Qingshan ka mea i lawe ʻia mai Rusia. Ua pāpā ʻia ka nickel Lūkini mai ke kālepa ʻana ma muli o ke kaua Lūkini-Ukrainian, e hoʻonui ana i ka waihona nickel maʻemaʻe haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa loa o ka honua, ka mea i hoʻokomo iā Qingshan i ka pōʻino o "ʻaʻohe waiwai e hoʻoponopono".

ʻO ia ke kumu e kokoke mai nei ka pāʻani pōkole lōʻihi o ka metala nickel.

Nā mālama nickel honua a me ka lako

Wahi a ka United States Geological Survey (USGS), ma ka hopena o 2021, ʻo ka mālama ʻana i ka nickel honua (nā mālama i hōʻoia ʻia o nā waihona ʻāina) ma kahi o 95 miliona tons.

Ma waena o lākou, ʻo Indonesia a me Australia kahi 21 miliona mau tona, ʻo 22% ka helu ʻana, e hoʻokūkū ana i ka papa ʻelua; ʻO Brazil ka 17% o nā waihona nickel o 16 miliona mau tons, ke kūlana kolu; He 8% a me 5% ka nui o Rusia a me Philippines. %, kūlana ʻehā a ʻelima paha. ʻO nā ʻāina ʻo TOP5 he 74% o nā kumuwaiwai nickel honua.

Ma kahi o 2.8 miliona mau tons o Kina, he 3%. Ma ke ʻano he mea kūʻai nui i nā kumuwaiwai nickel, hilinaʻi nui ʻo Kina i ka lawe ʻana mai o nā kumuwaiwai nickel, me ka nui o ka lawe ʻana mai ma luna o 80% no nā makahiki he nui.

E like me ke ʻano o ka ʻai, ua māhele nui ʻia ka nickel ore i nickel sulfide a me laterite nickel, me ka ratio o kahi 6:4. Aia ka mea mua ma Australia, Russia a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe, a ʻo ka mea hope ma Indonesia, Brazil, Philippines a me nā wahi ʻē aʻe.

Wahi a ka mākeke noi, ʻo ka noi o lalo o ka nickel ka mea nui o ka hana ʻana i ke kila kila, nā ʻāpana a me nā pā uila. ʻO ke kila kila ma kahi o 72%, ʻo nā alloys a me nā castings e pili ana i ka 12%, a ʻo ka nickel no nā pihi ma kahi o 7%.

Ma mua, aia ʻelua mau ala kūʻokoʻa kūʻokoʻa ma ke kaulahao lako nickel: "latterite nickel-nickel pig iron/nickel iron-stainless steel" a me "nickel sulfide-pure nickel-battery nickel".

I ka manawa like, ke kū mālie nei ka mākeke hoʻolako a me ka noi ʻana o ka nickel i kahi imbalance structural. Ma kekahiʻaoʻao, ua hoʻokomoʻia ka nui o nā nickel puaʻa hao i hanaʻia e ke kaʻina hana RKEF, me ka hopena o ke koena o ka hao nickel puaʻa; ma kekahiʻaoʻao, i alakaʻiʻia e ka hoʻomohala wikiwikiʻana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou, nā pila ʻO ka uluʻana o ka nickel ua hopena i ka nele o ka nickel maʻemaʻe.

Hōʻike ka ʻikepili mai ka World Bureau of Metal Statistics e loaʻa kahi koena o 84,000 tons nickel i 2020. E hoʻomaka ana i 2021, e piʻi nui ka noi nickel honua. ʻO ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā kaʻa ikehu hou ua alakaʻi i ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka nickel, a ʻo ka nele o ka lako i ka mākeke nickel honua a hiki i 144,300 tons i 2021.

Eia nō naʻe, me ka holomua ʻana o ka ʻenehana hoʻoponopono huahana waena, ua haki ʻia ke ala hoʻolako pālua i ʻōlelo ʻia ma luna. ʻO ka mea mua, hiki i ka ʻeleʻele haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa laterite ke hana i ka nickel sulfate ma o ka huahana waena o ka hana HPAL; ʻO ka lua, hiki ke hoʻohua i ka hao nickel puaʻa ma o ke kaʻina hana pyrotechnic RKEF, a laila hele i ka puhi ʻana i ka mea hoʻololi e hana i ka nickel matte kiʻekiʻe, a laila e hoʻopuka i ka nickel sulfate. Hoʻomaopopo ia i ka hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia ka nickel ore laterite i ka ʻoihana ikehu hou.

I kēia manawa,ʻo nā papahana hana e hoʻohana ana i kaʻenehana HPAL me Ramu, Moa, Coral Bay, Taganito, a me nā mea'ē aʻe. -ʻO ka papahana kobalt i hoʻopukapuka ʻia e Yiwei nā papahana hana HPAL āpau.

Eia kekahi, ua hoʻokomoʻia ka papahana nickel matte kiʻekiʻe i alakaʻiʻia e Tsingshan Group, a ua weheʻia ka hakahaka ma waena o ka nickel laterite a me ka nickel sulfate, a uaʻike i ka hoʻololiʻana o ka hao puaʻa nickel ma waena o ke kila kila a me nāʻoihana ikehu hou.

ʻO ka manaʻo o ka ʻoihana ʻo ia i ka wā pōkole, ʻaʻole i hiki i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana i ka mana hana nickel matte kiʻekiʻe i ka nui o ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka hāʻawi ʻana o nā mea nickel, a ʻo ka ulu ʻana o ka lako nickel sulfate e hilinaʻi mau nei i ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana i ka nickel mua e like me nickel beans/nickel powder. mālama i kahi ʻano ikaika.

I ka wā lōʻihi, ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka nickel i nā kula kuʻuna e like me ke kila kuhiliʻole ua mālama mau i ka ulu ʻana, a ʻo ke ʻano o ka ulu wikiwiki ʻana i ke kahua o nā pihi mana ternary. Ua hoʻokuʻuʻia ka mana hana o ka "nickel pig iron-high nickel matte", aʻo ka papahana hana HPAL e komo i ka manawa hana nui ma 2023. ʻO ka noi holoʻokoʻa no nā kumu waiwai nickel e mālama i kahi kaulike paʻa ma waena o ka lako a me ka noi e hiki mai ana.

ʻO ka hopena o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai nickel ma ka mākeke kaʻa ikehu hou

ʻOiaʻiʻo, ma muli o ke kumukūʻai nickel skyrocketing, Tesla's Model 3 high-performance version and Model Y long-life, high-performance version using high-nickel batteries ua hoʻonui ʻia e 10,000 yuan.

E like me kēlā me kēia GWh o ke kiʻekiʻe-nickel ternary lithium pākahiko (e lawe ana i ka NCM 811 ma ke ʻano he laʻana), 750 mau metala nickel e koi ʻia, a ʻo kēlā me kēia GWh o ka medium a me ka haʻahaʻa nickel (5 series, 6 series) ternary lithium batteries pono 500-600 toni metala nickel. A laila, piʻi ke kumu kūʻai o ka nickel i ka 10,000 yuan no ka metala ton, ʻo ia hoʻi, ke piʻi nei ke kumukūʻai o nā pākahi lithium ternary no GWh ma kahi o 5 miliona yuan a i 7.5 miliona yuan.

ʻO ka manaʻo koʻikoʻi, aia ke kumukūʻai nickel he US $ 50,000 / ton, e piʻi ke kumukūʻai o kahi Tesla Model 3 (76.8KWh) e 10,500 yuan; a i ka wā e piʻi ai ke kumukūʻai nickel i US $ 100,000 / ton, e piʻi ke kumukūʻai o kahi Tesla Model 3. ʻO kahi hoʻonui o kahi kokoke i 28,000 yuan.

Mai ka makahiki 2021, ua piʻi aʻe ke kūʻai ʻana o ka honua i nā kaʻa ikehu hou, a ua wikiwiki ke komo ʻana o ka mākeke o nā pihi mana kiʻekiʻe-nickel.

ʻO ka mea nui, ʻo nā hiʻohiʻona kiʻekiʻe o nā kaʻa uila o nā ʻāina ʻē e hoʻohana nui i ke ala ʻenehana nickel kiʻekiʻe, kahi i alakaʻi i ka piʻi nui o ka hiki ke hoʻokomo ʻia o nā pihi nickel kiʻekiʻe i ka mākeke honua, me CATL, Panasonic, LG Energy, ʻO Samsung SDI, SKI a me nā hui pākaukau alakaʻi ʻē aʻe ma Kina, Iapana a me South Korea.

Ma keʻano o ka hopena, ma kekahiʻaoʻao,ʻo ka hoʻololiʻana i kēia manawa o ka nickel pig iron i ka nickel matte kiʻekiʻe i alakaʻi i ka hoʻokuʻu lohi i ka mana hana papahana ma muli o ka lawaʻole o ka hoʻokele waiwai. Ke hoʻomau nei ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai nikela, kahi e hoʻoulu ai i ka mana hana o nā papahana nickel matte kiʻekiʻe o Indonesia e hoʻolalelale i ka hoʻopuka.

Ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai waiwai, ua hoʻomaka nā kaʻa ikehu hou e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai hui. Ke hopohopo nui nei ka ʻoihana inā e hoʻomau ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā mea nickel, hiki ke hoʻonui a hoʻopaʻa ʻia paha ka hana ʻana a me ke kūʻai ʻana i nā hiʻohiʻona high-nickel o nā kaʻa ikehu hou.